[FONT="]SORRY TO BE POSTING THIS AS I DONT WANT TO BE "THAT GUY" BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TOPICAL IN WHAT HE HAVE POSTED MANY TIMES IN THE PAST WITH PERCENTAGES.
SEEMS LIKE FLORIDA HAS BEEN MAKING MISTAKES
IF THE SAME PERSON TESTED POSITIVE THE FIRST TIME AND THEN POSITIVE AGAIN, FLORIDA ONLY COUNTS IT AS 1 POSITIVE TEST SO YOU ARE 1 FOR 1
IF THE SAME PERSON TESTS NEGATIVE AND THEN NEGATIVE AGAIN, FLORIDA COUNTS IT AS 2 NEGATIVE TESTS OR 0 FOR 2
OUR NUMBERS HAVE BEEN SKEWED WHICH ISNT GOOD
Florida might be minimizing the depth of its COVID-19 problem by underreporting its rate of positive tests, experts say.
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[FONT="]The method used to calculate the “positivity rate” — a critical measure of the pandemic’s progression — puts more emphasis on negative tests, skewing the results in that direction.
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<cnx class="cnx-ui cnx-ui-video cnx-in-mute cnx-is-playing" id="id_47a71594910906336" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 550px; height: 309.375px; position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px; flex-direction: column; pointer-events: all; z-index: 10; transition: margin 200ms ease-in-out 0s, opacity 200ms ease-in-out 0s; overflow: hidden;"><cnx class="cnx-ui-gradient-top" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); position: absolute; background: linear-gradient(rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.36) 0%, rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.25) 26.1%, rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.14) 67.59%, rgba(0, 0, 0, 0) 100%); width: 550px; z-index: -1; transition: inherit; height: 120px; top: 0px; opacity: 0;"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-head cnx-d-sm-none cnx-ui-bar cnx-lock-bar-on-hover " style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 550px; transition: inherit;"><cnx class="cnx-ui-head-buttons" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); flex-direction: row; transition: inherit; align-items: flex-end; position: absolute; width: 550px; height: 50px; padding: 0px 16px; justify-content: flex-end; margin-top: -50px;"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-logo-bar" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); flex-direction: row; align-items: flex-end; position: absolute; width: 550px; height: 50px; padding: 0px 16px; justify-content: flex-start;"><cnx class="cnx-logo" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); pointer-events: none; max-width: 144px; max-height: 36px; z-index: 1; justify-content: flex-start;">
</cnx></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-spacer cnx-d-sm-none" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); flex-grow: 1; align-self: stretch;"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-content cnx-ui-bar cnx-center-align" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 550px; pointer-events: none; transition: inherit; position: absolute; flex-direction: row; justify-content: center; align-items: flex-end; z-index: 2; top: 154.688px; transform: translateY(-50%);"><cnx class="cnx-ui-btn" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); pointer-events: all; width: 40px; height: 40px; margin: 0px 4px; position: relative; flex-shrink: 0;"><cnx class="cnx-icon-button cnx-ui-btn-hoverable cnx-button-big-play" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 40px; height: 40px; align-items: center; justify-content: center; cursor: pointer; position: relative; pointer-events: none; opacity: 0;"><cnx class="cnx-btn-container" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><cnx class="cnx-pause-icon" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><svg class="cnx-color-icon" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 24 24">
</path></svg></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-boom-elem" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"></cnx></cnx></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-spacer cnx-d-sm-none" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); flex-grow: 1; align-self: stretch;"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-content cnx-ui-bar cnx-d-sm-none " style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 550px; pointer-events: none; transition: inherit; position: relative; flex-direction: row; justify-content: space-between; align-items: flex-end; z-index: 2;"><cnx class="cnx-up-next-container cnx-hide-on-single-video" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); pointer-events: all; position: absolute; bottom: 16px; right: 16px; width: 168px; height: 91px; font-size: 12px; visibility: hidden; z-index: 2; cursor: pointer;"><cnx class="cnx-up-next-box" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 168px; height: 91px; position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px;"><cnx class="cnx-up-next-box-image" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 168px; height: 91px; position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px; transform: translateX(184px); transition: all 300ms ease-out 200ms; opacity: 0; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 2px 16px 0px;"><img style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: 168px; height: 91px;"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-up-next-box-gradient" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 168px; height: 91px; position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px; background: linear-gradient(rgba(0, 0, 0, 0) 0%, rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6) 100%); transform: translateX(184px); transition: all 300ms ease-out 200ms; opacity: 0;"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-up-next-box-text" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 16px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); position: absolute; height: 63px; width: 152px; color: white; margin: 3px 8px 8px; top: 20px; left: 0px; transform: translateX(184px); transition: all 100ms ease-out 100ms; opacity: 0; overflow: hidden;"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-up-next-box-button" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; width: 45px; height: 18px; background-color: white; opacity: 0; transform: translateX(184px); transition: opacity 200ms ease-out 0s, visibility 200ms ease-out 0s, transform 0ms ease 100ms;"><cnx class="cnx-up-next-box-button-text" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 12px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); height: 18px; color: rgb(0, 153, 255); justify-content: center; align-items: center;"></cnx></cnx></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-captions" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 16px; text-align: center; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); position: absolute; left: 275px; transform: translateX(-50%); justify-content: center; align-items: flex-end; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 20px; bottom: 10px; width: 550px; z-index: 1;"><cnx class="cnx-captions-container" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><cnx-span class="cnx-captions-text-holder" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: inline; line-height: 26px; text-align: left; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"></cnx-span></cnx></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-progress cnx-ui-bar cnx-d-sm-none" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 550px; flex-direction: row; transition: inherit; height: 16px; margin-bottom: -14px;"><cnx class="cnx-ui-progress-label cnx-d-md-none" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; line-height: 14px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 12px; padding: 0px 10px; justify-content: center; min-width: 48px;"><cnx-span style="box-sizing: content-box; display: inline-block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); align-self: flex-end; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 1px;"><cnx class="cnx-ui-progress-label" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; line-height: 14px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); padding: 0px 10px; justify-content: center; min-width: 48px;"><cnx-span style="box-sizing: content-box; display: inline-block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); align-self: flex-end; margin-bottom: 1px;">00:12</cnx-span></cnx></cnx-span></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-progress-bar" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); flex-grow: 1; align-self: stretch;"><cnx class="cnx-progress-bar cnx-video-progress" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 413.031px; height: 16px; align-items: flex-end; justify-content: center; pointer-events: all; position: relative; cursor: pointer;"><cnx class="cnx-progress-rail-container" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); pointer-events: none; width: 413.031px; height: 4px; position: relative; overflow: hidden; margin-bottom: 6px; transform: scale(1, 1); transition: transform 0.15s ease-in-out 0s;"><cnx class="cnx-progress-rail" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 413.031px; height: 4px; border-radius: 8px 0px 0px 8px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.6); position: absolute; z-index: 10;"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-progress-fill cnx-color-accent" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: calc(100% + 1px); height: 4px; transition: none 0s ease 0s; background-color: rgb(2, 69, 132); position: absolute; left: -413.031px; z-index: 20; fill: rgb(2, 69, 132); color: rgb(2, 69, 132); stroke: rgb(2, 69, 132); transform: translateX(7.87704px);"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-progress-follow" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: calc(100% + 1px); height: 4px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.6); position: absolute; left: -413.031px; z-index: 11;"></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-progress-handle cnx-color-accent" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); transition: opacity 0.15s ease-in-out 0s; width: 16px; height: 16px; top: 8px; margin-top: -8px; border-radius: 8px; background-color: rgb(2, 69, 132); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5) 0px 2px 4px 0px; position: absolute; z-index: 30; left: 0px; transform: translateX(-0.12296px); border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.36); opacity: 0; fill: rgb(2, 69, 132); color: rgb(2, 69, 132); stroke: rgb(2, 69, 132);"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-progress-hitarea" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 413.031px; height: 16px; z-index: 1; position: absolute; bottom: 0px; left: 0px; padding-top: 18px;"></cnx></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-progress-label cnx-d-md-none" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; line-height: 14px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 12px; padding: 0px 10px; justify-content: center; min-width: 48px;"><cnx-span style="box-sizing: content-box; display: inline-block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); align-self: flex-end; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 1px;"><cnx class="cnx-ui-progress-label" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; line-height: 14px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); padding: 0px 10px; justify-content: center; min-width: 48px;"><cnx-span style="box-sizing: content-box; display: inline-block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); align-self: flex-end; margin-bottom: 1px;">11:15</cnx-span></cnx></cnx-span></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-buttons cnx-ui-bar cnx-lock-bar-on-hover" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 550px; flex-direction: row; transition: inherit; justify-content: space-between; align-items: center; padding: 4px 10px 8px; height: 50px; margin-bottom: -50px;"><cnx class="cnx-ui-btn cnx-hide-on-single-video" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); pointer-events: all; width: 40px; height: 40px; margin: 0px 4px; position: relative; flex-shrink: 0;"><cnx class="cnx-icon-button cnx-button-previousbutton cnx-ui-btn-hoverable" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 40px; height: 40px; align-items: center; justify-content: center; cursor: pointer; position: relative;"><cnx class="cnx-btn-container" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><svg class="cnx-color-icon" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 24 24">
</path></svg></cnx><cnx class="cnx-boom-elem" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"></cnx></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-btn" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); pointer-events: all; width: 40px; height: 40px; margin: 0px 4px; position: relative; flex-shrink: 0;"><cnx class="cnx-icon-button cnx-ui-btn-hoverable " style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 40px; height: 40px; align-items: center; justify-content: center; cursor: pointer; position: relative;"><cnx class="cnx-btn-container" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><cnx class="cnx-pause-icon" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><svg class="cnx-color-icon" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 24 24">
</path></svg></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-boom-elem" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"></cnx></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-btn cnx-hide-on-single-video" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); pointer-events: all; width: 40px; height: 40px; margin: 0px 4px; position: relative; flex-shrink: 0;"><cnx class="cnx-icon-button cnx-button-upnextbutton cnx-ui-btn-hoverable" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 40px; height: 40px; align-items: center; justify-content: center; cursor: pointer; position: relative;"><cnx class="cnx-btn-container" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><svg class="cnx-color-icon" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 24 24">
</path></svg></cnx><cnx class="cnx-boom-elem" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"></cnx></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-d-sm-none cnx-d-md-none" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><cnx class="cnx-volume-container" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); flex-direction: row; pointer-events: all; height: 40px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); border-radius: 16px; transition: background 0.25s ease-in-out 0s;"><cnx class="cnx-ui-btn cnx-volume-btn" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); pointer-events: all; width: 40px; height: 40px; margin: 0px 4px; position: relative; flex-shrink: 0;"><cnx class="cnx-icon-button cnx-sound-on" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 40px; height: 40px; align-items: center; justify-content: center; cursor: pointer;"><cnx class="cnx-btn-container" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><cnx class="cnx-mute-icon" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><svg markup-inline="" class="cnx-color-icon" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 24 24">
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A person who tests positive is counted only once, but negative tests can be counted repeatedly if the same person got more than one test.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]In addition, just as the pandemic raced out of control this month, the state changed the formula. It now mixes two different types of tests, including one that produces more false negative results.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]The upshot of both factors is that the rate of positive tests, as quoted by the state, could make the situation look significantly better than it is, experts say.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]How much the rate would change, if calculated differently, is impossible to know because the state refuses to release key pieces of raw data.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]“There is a peculiar odor around the data in Florida and there has been for some time,” said Dr. William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]CORONAVIRUS IN FLORIDA: These are the numbers to watch »
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Olivier Lacan, a volunteer for the COVID Tracking Project, which has followed data across the country, said Florida’s lack of transparency is fueling distrust.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]“The right wing is saying the numbers can’t be trusted; the left is saying the numbers might be higher. Just show the math!” he said.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Governor Ron DeSantis frequently cites the positivity rate to justify reopening schools and businesses. He tweeted the statistic 12 times between late April and the end of May. He last tweeted the figure on May 26, but he has highlighted it during several news conferences.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Recently, his spokeswoman, Helen Aguirre-Ferré, has tweeted the statistic twice, pointing to a four-day-long decline in the measure as a silver lining in Florida’s looming pandemic thundercloud. That trend reversed on Monday.
[/FONT]
[FONT="][h=3]How it’s calculated[/h]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Here’s how state officials say the positivity rate is calculated:
[/FONT]
[FONT="]“We only count the positive test once,” Alina Alonso, the head of the Palm Beach County Department of Health, told Palm Beach County commissioners on July 7.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]“We do count the negative tests more than once because there are reasons for people testing negative and getting multiple test results. But the positives by name are only captured once,” she said.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]That means that the same person with multiple negative tests can be counted several times.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]<figure class="" data-trk-photo-credit="David Schutz" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px;">
<figcaption class="caption-text spaced spaced-top spaced-sm flex-container-row justify-space-between spaced spaced-bottom spaced-sm" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; font-family: "Open Sans"; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); flex-direction: row; justify-content: space-between; margin-top: 8px; margin-bottom: 8px;">(David Schutz)
</figcaption></figure>
[/FONT]
[FONT="]That’s fine for the day-to-day positivity rate, said Jason Salemi, associate professor of epidemiology at the University of South Florida’s College of Public Health, but a problem arises when you try to calculate an average over a series of days from the daily statistic.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]“If the same people are testing negative and getting reported over and over … well, the results could be quite different from a true person-level analysis,” he said.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]The number of people being retested on a daily basis is potentially very large, Lacan said.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]On Tuesday, he estimates that at least 21,000 of the day’s approximately 53,700 negative tests were likely retests, since 45,753 people were tested for the first time that day, but about 67,000 tests were reported.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Some 12,290 people tested positive for the virus, according to results released that day.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Aguirre-Ferré acknowledged May 22 that the government was counting only people who tested positive once, but made no mention of negative tests in her statement.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Late Wednesday evening, Alberto Moscoso, the spokesman for the Florida Department of Health, said the state counts multiple negative tests for the same person because “a negative test only reflects the individual’s status at the moment the specimen was collected. Since a person who tested negative previously remains susceptible to the virus, the subsequent test is still included in the denominator of the positivity rate calculation.”
[/FONT]
[FONT="][h=3]Combining tests[/h]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Experts say the state’s decision July 1 to include Antigen tests in their count made the situation even more murky.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Before then, the state had published results for PCR tests only. PCR tests are the “gold standard” of virus tests, since they detect pieces of the virus genetic material with a high degree of accuracy. But they can be slow to process.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Antigen tests, which instead look for specific proteins on the exterior of the virus, are much faster to process. However, they are significantly less accurate. One popular test, produced by Quidel, a pharmaceutical company, takes as little as 15 minutes but can miss up to 20% of positive infections.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]RELATED: Nearly one-third of children tested for COVID in Florida are positive »
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Combining the two types of tests into one statistic could drive down the positivity rate, since a significant number of Antigen tests may be false negatives.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]<figure class="" data-trk-photo-credit="" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px;">
</figure>
[h=2]Breaking News Alerts Newsletter[/h]
[FONT="]As it happens
Get updates on the coronavirus pandemic and other news as it happens with our free breaking news email alerts.
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[FONT="]“Do not combine those cases, just don’t,” said Hanage, the associate professor at Harvard. “That’s lunatic. If that’s the case in Florida, people should be up in arms.”
[/FONT]
[FONT="]It is unclear how many antigen tests the state has performed since July 1. The state does not disclose this figure in its daily reports and has not responded to questions about the number of tests performed.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]<figure class="" data-trk-photo-credit="" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px;">
<figcaption class="caption-text spaced spaced-top spaced-sm flex-container-row justify-space-between " style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; font-family: "Open Sans"; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); flex-direction: row; justify-content: space-between; margin-top: 8px;">Every day, Florida releases data on the state's COVID-19 cases, including the case positivity rate. This is Wednesday's release.
</figcaption></figure>
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Dr. Amira Roess, professor of Global Health and Epidemiology at George Mason University, said that no matter how the data gets parsed, the conclusion right now is pretty clear.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]“The bottom line is that their percent positivity is high, and it keeps going high,” she said. “Florida’s hospitalization is getting very close to hitting capacity in some cities. It’s very clear that they’ve got a COVID hot spot.”
[/FONT]
SEEMS LIKE FLORIDA HAS BEEN MAKING MISTAKES
IF THE SAME PERSON TESTED POSITIVE THE FIRST TIME AND THEN POSITIVE AGAIN, FLORIDA ONLY COUNTS IT AS 1 POSITIVE TEST SO YOU ARE 1 FOR 1
IF THE SAME PERSON TESTS NEGATIVE AND THEN NEGATIVE AGAIN, FLORIDA COUNTS IT AS 2 NEGATIVE TESTS OR 0 FOR 2
OUR NUMBERS HAVE BEEN SKEWED WHICH ISNT GOOD
Florida might be minimizing the depth of its COVID-19 problem by underreporting its rate of positive tests, experts say.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]The method used to calculate the “positivity rate” — a critical measure of the pandemic’s progression — puts more emphasis on negative tests, skewing the results in that direction.
[/FONT]
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<cnx class="cnx-main-container cnx-in-desktop cnx-el cnx-main-container-flex" style="box-sizing: content-box; line-height: 1; font-family: Roboto, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Open Sans", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 550px; height: auto; position: relative; overflow: hidden; background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: flex !important;"><cnx class="cnx-player-wrapper cnx-size-responsive" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); flex-grow: 1; position: relative;"><cnx class="cnx-ratio" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); height: 0px; width: 550px; position: relative; padding-bottom: 309.375px;"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-video-container cnx-bp-xl-v" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 550px; height: 309.375px; position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px; z-index: 1; flex-shrink: 0;"><cnx class="cnx-ui cnx-ui-video cnx-in-mute cnx-is-playing" id="id_47a71594910906336" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 550px; height: 309.375px; position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px; flex-direction: column; pointer-events: all; z-index: 10; transition: margin 200ms ease-in-out 0s, opacity 200ms ease-in-out 0s; overflow: hidden;"><cnx class="cnx-ui-gradient-top" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); position: absolute; background: linear-gradient(rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.36) 0%, rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.25) 26.1%, rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.14) 67.59%, rgba(0, 0, 0, 0) 100%); width: 550px; z-index: -1; transition: inherit; height: 120px; top: 0px; opacity: 0;"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-head cnx-d-sm-none cnx-ui-bar cnx-lock-bar-on-hover " style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 550px; transition: inherit;"><cnx class="cnx-ui-head-buttons" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); flex-direction: row; transition: inherit; align-items: flex-end; position: absolute; width: 550px; height: 50px; padding: 0px 16px; justify-content: flex-end; margin-top: -50px;"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-logo-bar" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); flex-direction: row; align-items: flex-end; position: absolute; width: 550px; height: 50px; padding: 0px 16px; justify-content: flex-start;"><cnx class="cnx-logo" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); pointer-events: none; max-width: 144px; max-height: 36px; z-index: 1; justify-content: flex-start;">
</path></svg></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-boom-elem" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"></cnx></cnx></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-spacer cnx-d-sm-none" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); flex-grow: 1; align-self: stretch;"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-content cnx-ui-bar cnx-d-sm-none " style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 550px; pointer-events: none; transition: inherit; position: relative; flex-direction: row; justify-content: space-between; align-items: flex-end; z-index: 2;"><cnx class="cnx-up-next-container cnx-hide-on-single-video" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); pointer-events: all; position: absolute; bottom: 16px; right: 16px; width: 168px; height: 91px; font-size: 12px; visibility: hidden; z-index: 2; cursor: pointer;"><cnx class="cnx-up-next-box" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 168px; height: 91px; position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px;"><cnx class="cnx-up-next-box-image" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 168px; height: 91px; position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px; transform: translateX(184px); transition: all 300ms ease-out 200ms; opacity: 0; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 2px 16px 0px;"><img style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: 168px; height: 91px;"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-up-next-box-gradient" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 168px; height: 91px; position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px; background: linear-gradient(rgba(0, 0, 0, 0) 0%, rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6) 100%); transform: translateX(184px); transition: all 300ms ease-out 200ms; opacity: 0;"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-up-next-box-text" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 16px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); position: absolute; height: 63px; width: 152px; color: white; margin: 3px 8px 8px; top: 20px; left: 0px; transform: translateX(184px); transition: all 100ms ease-out 100ms; opacity: 0; overflow: hidden;"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-up-next-box-button" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; width: 45px; height: 18px; background-color: white; opacity: 0; transform: translateX(184px); transition: opacity 200ms ease-out 0s, visibility 200ms ease-out 0s, transform 0ms ease 100ms;"><cnx class="cnx-up-next-box-button-text" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 12px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); height: 18px; color: rgb(0, 153, 255); justify-content: center; align-items: center;"></cnx></cnx></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-captions" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 16px; text-align: center; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); position: absolute; left: 275px; transform: translateX(-50%); justify-content: center; align-items: flex-end; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 20px; bottom: 10px; width: 550px; z-index: 1;"><cnx class="cnx-captions-container" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><cnx-span class="cnx-captions-text-holder" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: inline; line-height: 26px; text-align: left; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"></cnx-span></cnx></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-progress cnx-ui-bar cnx-d-sm-none" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 550px; flex-direction: row; transition: inherit; height: 16px; margin-bottom: -14px;"><cnx class="cnx-ui-progress-label cnx-d-md-none" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; line-height: 14px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 12px; padding: 0px 10px; justify-content: center; min-width: 48px;"><cnx-span style="box-sizing: content-box; display: inline-block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); align-self: flex-end; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 1px;"><cnx class="cnx-ui-progress-label" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; line-height: 14px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); padding: 0px 10px; justify-content: center; min-width: 48px;"><cnx-span style="box-sizing: content-box; display: inline-block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); align-self: flex-end; margin-bottom: 1px;">00:12</cnx-span></cnx></cnx-span></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-progress-bar" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); flex-grow: 1; align-self: stretch;"><cnx class="cnx-progress-bar cnx-video-progress" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 413.031px; height: 16px; align-items: flex-end; justify-content: center; pointer-events: all; position: relative; cursor: pointer;"><cnx class="cnx-progress-rail-container" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); pointer-events: none; width: 413.031px; height: 4px; position: relative; overflow: hidden; margin-bottom: 6px; transform: scale(1, 1); transition: transform 0.15s ease-in-out 0s;"><cnx class="cnx-progress-rail" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 413.031px; height: 4px; border-radius: 8px 0px 0px 8px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.6); position: absolute; z-index: 10;"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-progress-fill cnx-color-accent" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: calc(100% + 1px); height: 4px; transition: none 0s ease 0s; background-color: rgb(2, 69, 132); position: absolute; left: -413.031px; z-index: 20; fill: rgb(2, 69, 132); color: rgb(2, 69, 132); stroke: rgb(2, 69, 132); transform: translateX(7.87704px);"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-progress-follow" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: calc(100% + 1px); height: 4px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.6); position: absolute; left: -413.031px; z-index: 11;"></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-progress-handle cnx-color-accent" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); transition: opacity 0.15s ease-in-out 0s; width: 16px; height: 16px; top: 8px; margin-top: -8px; border-radius: 8px; background-color: rgb(2, 69, 132); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5) 0px 2px 4px 0px; position: absolute; z-index: 30; left: 0px; transform: translateX(-0.12296px); border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.36); opacity: 0; fill: rgb(2, 69, 132); color: rgb(2, 69, 132); stroke: rgb(2, 69, 132);"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-progress-hitarea" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 413.031px; height: 16px; z-index: 1; position: absolute; bottom: 0px; left: 0px; padding-top: 18px;"></cnx></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-progress-label cnx-d-md-none" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; line-height: 14px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 12px; padding: 0px 10px; justify-content: center; min-width: 48px;"><cnx-span style="box-sizing: content-box; display: inline-block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); align-self: flex-end; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 1px;"><cnx class="cnx-ui-progress-label" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; line-height: 14px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); padding: 0px 10px; justify-content: center; min-width: 48px;"><cnx-span style="box-sizing: content-box; display: inline-block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); align-self: flex-end; margin-bottom: 1px;">11:15</cnx-span></cnx></cnx-span></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-buttons cnx-ui-bar cnx-lock-bar-on-hover" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 550px; flex-direction: row; transition: inherit; justify-content: space-between; align-items: center; padding: 4px 10px 8px; height: 50px; margin-bottom: -50px;"><cnx class="cnx-ui-btn cnx-hide-on-single-video" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); pointer-events: all; width: 40px; height: 40px; margin: 0px 4px; position: relative; flex-shrink: 0;"><cnx class="cnx-icon-button cnx-button-previousbutton cnx-ui-btn-hoverable" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 40px; height: 40px; align-items: center; justify-content: center; cursor: pointer; position: relative;"><cnx class="cnx-btn-container" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><svg class="cnx-color-icon" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 24 24">
</path></svg></cnx><cnx class="cnx-boom-elem" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"></cnx></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-btn" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); pointer-events: all; width: 40px; height: 40px; margin: 0px 4px; position: relative; flex-shrink: 0;"><cnx class="cnx-icon-button cnx-ui-btn-hoverable " style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 40px; height: 40px; align-items: center; justify-content: center; cursor: pointer; position: relative;"><cnx class="cnx-btn-container" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><cnx class="cnx-pause-icon" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><svg class="cnx-color-icon" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 24 24">
</path></svg></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-boom-elem" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"></cnx></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-btn cnx-hide-on-single-video" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); pointer-events: all; width: 40px; height: 40px; margin: 0px 4px; position: relative; flex-shrink: 0;"><cnx class="cnx-icon-button cnx-button-upnextbutton cnx-ui-btn-hoverable" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 40px; height: 40px; align-items: center; justify-content: center; cursor: pointer; position: relative;"><cnx class="cnx-btn-container" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><svg class="cnx-color-icon" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 24 24">
</path></svg></cnx><cnx class="cnx-boom-elem" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"></cnx></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-d-sm-none cnx-d-md-none" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><cnx class="cnx-volume-container" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); flex-direction: row; pointer-events: all; height: 40px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); border-radius: 16px; transition: background 0.25s ease-in-out 0s;"><cnx class="cnx-ui-btn cnx-volume-btn" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); pointer-events: all; width: 40px; height: 40px; margin: 0px 4px; position: relative; flex-shrink: 0;"><cnx class="cnx-icon-button cnx-sound-on" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 40px; height: 40px; align-items: center; justify-content: center; cursor: pointer;"><cnx class="cnx-btn-container" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><cnx class="cnx-mute-icon" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><svg markup-inline="" class="cnx-color-icon" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 24 24">
</path></svg></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-boom-elem" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"></cnx></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-volume-bar" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); align-items: center; justify-content: center; width: 0px; margin: 0px; height: 40px; opacity: 0; visibility: hidden; transition: all 0.25s ease-in-out 0s;"><cnx class="cnx-progress-bar" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 0px; height: 40px; align-items: center; justify-content: center; pointer-events: all; position: relative; cursor: pointer;"><cnx class="cnx-progress-rail-container" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); pointer-events: none; width: 0px; height: 4px; position: relative; overflow: hidden;"><cnx class="cnx-progress-rail" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 0px; height: 4px; border-radius: 8px 0px 0px 8px; background-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); position: absolute; z-index: 10;"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-progress-fill cnx-color-icon" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 0px; height: 4px; transition: all 0.15s ease-in-out 0s; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); position: absolute; left: 0px; z-index: 20; transform: translateX(0px); fill: rgb(255, 255, 255);"></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-progress-handle cnx-color-icon" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); transition: all 0.15s ease-in-out 0s; width: 16px; height: 16px; top: 20px; margin-top: -8px; border-radius: 8px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5) 0px 2px 4px 0px; position: absolute; z-index: 30; left: 0px; transform: translateX(-8px); fill: rgb(255, 255, 255);"></cnx></cnx></cnx></cnx></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-spacer cnx-d-sm-none" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); flex-grow: 1; align-self: stretch;"></cnx><cnx class="cnx-ui-btn cnx-d-sm-none cnx-d-md-none cnx-hide-on-volume-hover" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); pointer-events: all; width: 40px; height: 40px; margin: 0px 4px; position: relative; flex-shrink: 0; transition: opacity 150ms ease-in-out 0s;"><cnx class="cnx-icon-button cnx-button-settings cnx-ui-btn-hoverable" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); width: 40px; height: 40px; align-items: center; justify-content: center; cursor: pointer; position: relative;"><cnx class="cnx-btn-container" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><cnx class="cnx-settings-icon" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: block; line-height: 1; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><svg markup-inline="" class="cnx-color-icon" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 22 22">
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A person who tests positive is counted only once, but negative tests can be counted repeatedly if the same person got more than one test.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]In addition, just as the pandemic raced out of control this month, the state changed the formula. It now mixes two different types of tests, including one that produces more false negative results.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]The upshot of both factors is that the rate of positive tests, as quoted by the state, could make the situation look significantly better than it is, experts say.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]How much the rate would change, if calculated differently, is impossible to know because the state refuses to release key pieces of raw data.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]
[FONT="][h=2]PAID POST[/h]What Is This?
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Boca Raton,Florida Launches New Policy For Cars Used Less Than 49 Miles/Day[FONT="]Drivers With No Tickets In 3 Years Should Do This On July[/FONT]
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[FONT="]“There is a peculiar odor around the data in Florida and there has been for some time,” said Dr. William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]CORONAVIRUS IN FLORIDA: These are the numbers to watch »
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Olivier Lacan, a volunteer for the COVID Tracking Project, which has followed data across the country, said Florida’s lack of transparency is fueling distrust.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]“The right wing is saying the numbers can’t be trusted; the left is saying the numbers might be higher. Just show the math!” he said.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Governor Ron DeSantis frequently cites the positivity rate to justify reopening schools and businesses. He tweeted the statistic 12 times between late April and the end of May. He last tweeted the figure on May 26, but he has highlighted it during several news conferences.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Recently, his spokeswoman, Helen Aguirre-Ferré, has tweeted the statistic twice, pointing to a four-day-long decline in the measure as a silver lining in Florida’s looming pandemic thundercloud. That trend reversed on Monday.
[/FONT]
[FONT="][h=3]How it’s calculated[/h]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Here’s how state officials say the positivity rate is calculated:
[/FONT]
[FONT="]“We only count the positive test once,” Alina Alonso, the head of the Palm Beach County Department of Health, told Palm Beach County commissioners on July 7.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]“We do count the negative tests more than once because there are reasons for people testing negative and getting multiple test results. But the positives by name are only captured once,” she said.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]That means that the same person with multiple negative tests can be counted several times.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]<figure class="" data-trk-photo-credit="David Schutz" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px;">
<figcaption class="caption-text spaced spaced-top spaced-sm flex-container-row justify-space-between spaced spaced-bottom spaced-sm" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; font-family: "Open Sans"; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); flex-direction: row; justify-content: space-between; margin-top: 8px; margin-bottom: 8px;">(David Schutz)
</figcaption></figure>
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[FONT="]That’s fine for the day-to-day positivity rate, said Jason Salemi, associate professor of epidemiology at the University of South Florida’s College of Public Health, but a problem arises when you try to calculate an average over a series of days from the daily statistic.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]“If the same people are testing negative and getting reported over and over … well, the results could be quite different from a true person-level analysis,” he said.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]The number of people being retested on a daily basis is potentially very large, Lacan said.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]On Tuesday, he estimates that at least 21,000 of the day’s approximately 53,700 negative tests were likely retests, since 45,753 people were tested for the first time that day, but about 67,000 tests were reported.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Some 12,290 people tested positive for the virus, according to results released that day.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Aguirre-Ferré acknowledged May 22 that the government was counting only people who tested positive once, but made no mention of negative tests in her statement.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Late Wednesday evening, Alberto Moscoso, the spokesman for the Florida Department of Health, said the state counts multiple negative tests for the same person because “a negative test only reflects the individual’s status at the moment the specimen was collected. Since a person who tested negative previously remains susceptible to the virus, the subsequent test is still included in the denominator of the positivity rate calculation.”
[/FONT]
[FONT="][h=3]Combining tests[/h]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Experts say the state’s decision July 1 to include Antigen tests in their count made the situation even more murky.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Before then, the state had published results for PCR tests only. PCR tests are the “gold standard” of virus tests, since they detect pieces of the virus genetic material with a high degree of accuracy. But they can be slow to process.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Antigen tests, which instead look for specific proteins on the exterior of the virus, are much faster to process. However, they are significantly less accurate. One popular test, produced by Quidel, a pharmaceutical company, takes as little as 15 minutes but can miss up to 20% of positive infections.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]RELATED: Nearly one-third of children tested for COVID in Florida are positive »
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Combining the two types of tests into one statistic could drive down the positivity rate, since a significant number of Antigen tests may be false negatives.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]<figure class="" data-trk-photo-credit="" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px;">
</figure>
[h=2]Breaking News Alerts Newsletter[/h]
[FONT="]As it happens
Get updates on the coronavirus pandemic and other news as it happens with our free breaking news email alerts.
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[FONT="]“Do not combine those cases, just don’t,” said Hanage, the associate professor at Harvard. “That’s lunatic. If that’s the case in Florida, people should be up in arms.”
[/FONT]
[FONT="]It is unclear how many antigen tests the state has performed since July 1. The state does not disclose this figure in its daily reports and has not responded to questions about the number of tests performed.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]<figure class="" data-trk-photo-credit="" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px;">
<figcaption class="caption-text spaced spaced-top spaced-sm flex-container-row justify-space-between " style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; font-family: "Open Sans"; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); flex-direction: row; justify-content: space-between; margin-top: 8px;">Every day, Florida releases data on the state's COVID-19 cases, including the case positivity rate. This is Wednesday's release.
</figcaption></figure>
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[FONT="]Dr. Amira Roess, professor of Global Health and Epidemiology at George Mason University, said that no matter how the data gets parsed, the conclusion right now is pretty clear.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]“The bottom line is that their percent positivity is high, and it keeps going high,” she said. “Florida’s hospitalization is getting very close to hitting capacity in some cities. It’s very clear that they’ve got a COVID hot spot.”
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